After Kevin Ogletree exploded on to the scene last night, fantasy owners everywhere are going Ogletree crazy. Since only 4.1% of owners actually owned him before last night, and 1.1% of actually started him, there is no doubt that people will stop dropping players left and right to grab him. But should they? Is he worth picking up? Was week 1 a fluke or a showing of things to come?
First things first, I would pick him up, but not solely because of last night’s performance. Also, not to sound contradictory, but I believe last night’s performance was somewhat of a fluke. Now that I have laid out my opinion on him, I will explain why.
1. Why I would pick him up.
There is no denying that the Cowboys offense if versatile, explosive, and high-powered. That means that they will score a lot of points through different means, and that Romo will spread the ball around. Despite Ogletree’s brilliant performance last night, there is no denying that Austin, Bryant, and Witten are Romo’s favorite targets. Yet, one cannot look past what happened to Laurent Robinson last year (858 yards and 11 TDs), the guy whose spot Ogletree has taken. Another reason I would grab him is because each year there is always that undrafted gem in the waiver wire that owners will fight over to get their hands on. Like last year in many leagues Cam Newton was a free-agent. Now, I am not saying Ogletree is Cam Newton, or will duplicate his numbers, it’s just an example. Yet, that being said, he is worth a pick-up and placement on your bench or flex position (depending on your league set-up) if you can drop a lower drafted player. I wouldn’t go dropping anyone worthwhile for this guy just yet, and I’ll explain why.
2. Why last night was somewhat of a fluke.
Last night Ogletree had his longest reception ever (40 yards) 8 of his career 33 receptions, 114 of his 408 receiving yards, and his first 2 TDs ever. Oh yah and this is his fourth season in the league. Granted, Robinson had 858 of his 1,858 career receiving yards, and 11 of his 15 career TDs last season, his 5th in the league, but the circumstances where different. Miles Austin was out a lot last season with hamstring issues, and while I am not saying he will last all season, he was undoubtedly less of a factor a year ago. Also, last night Jason Witten was a complete non factor (and shouldn’t have even played) other than in the blocking game, which was evident by Murray’s 131 rushing yards. Once Witten is healed and it seems Austin is back, Ogletree’s targets will likely diminish. Finally, you cannot overlook the fact that the Giant’s secondary was basically diminished last night due to injury, leaving no-name, and special team’s CB to cover Ogletree. With a QB like Romo, of course he is going to exploit that. Now some may argue that since Ogletree is a #3 receiver that teams obviously won’t send their best DBs to cover him; somewhat of a valid point but not really. Teams throughout the league have anywhere from 2-4 solid DBs who can cover guys like Ogletree, and if he somehow does continue this streak, don’t you think teams would start keying in on him more?
Final Verdict- I would definitely grab him off of waiver wires before it is too late. Just do not go dropping anyone worthwhile for him, and do not go throwing him in your starting line-up over a reliable player. Maybe he can be your surprise player, or maybe he can become trade bait.