Andre Johnson, RG III and other Top Surprise and Let-downs in Fantasy Football

When calculating top surprises and top let-downs it is important to understand exactly what the formula is. However, unlike all those dreadful math classes you took throughout school, this formula is easy to understand.   In fact, it’s quite simple, the equation is as following: expectation vs. actual output.

To make it even simpler, when determining a surprise or a let-down I look at what was expected from them entering the season, and what have they actually done.  There are some players who have underperformed significantly, however it may have been due to injury (Greg Jennings) so players like that are not on this list.

With that being said, let’s get into it:



5. A.J. Green– We all know Green’s expectations, especially after a strong rookie campaign where he caught 65 passes for over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs (with a rookie QB).  However did we know he would be this good, this quickly? He currently:

  • 9th in NFL in receptions (44)
  • 8th in yards (636)
  • 1st in TDs (7)
  • 6th in rec yards/game (90.9)
  • Currently tied for 1st as top WR in fantasy (with Victor Cruz), with the Green coming off of a bye week, and Cruz yet to have his

Tied for 4th:

Alfred Morris- Like I have said before with him, he’s a rookie and a Shanahan RB, two things I rarely ever trust.  Yet he has defied my doubts and made me a believer, he currently:

  • 3rd in NFL in YDS (717)
  •  4th in NFL in RUSH YPG (89.6)
  •  3rd in NFL in TD (5)
  • 5th overall RB in fantasy
  • He’s also coming off back-t0-back 120+ yard rushing games

Adrian Peterson- We all know how good All Day AP is, but are we forgetting the fact that he is only mere months removed from major knee surgery to repair not only his ACL, but also his MCL? Despite all those obstacles, AP has managed, though eight games, to:

  • 1st in NFL in YDS (775) 
  • 1st in NFL in RUSH YPG (96.9) 
  • 9th in NFL in TD (4)
  • 2nd RB in fast, only behind Foster

3. Heath Miller– Like I said before, he’s a good TE there is no denying that, but when is the last time he’s been relevant in fantasy?  Well regardless of his past-seasons offensive slumps, this season, through eight weeks Miller is:

  • 5th in the NFL in TD (6)
  • 9th among TE in receiving (336)
  • 5th among TE in receptions
  • 2nd in TE in fantasy with 69 points, ahead of Gonzales, Graham, Davis and Witten

2. Stevan Ridley- Who has more fantasy points 8 weeks into the season, Ray Rice or Stephen Ridley?  Trick question, through 8 weeks the highly sought after Rice and little-known Ridley have the same amount of fantasy points (100).  Not only is this a huge surprised because it’s Ridley second year, but he’s also a New England RB, and NE isn’t known for their run game, however, thus far Ridley is:

  • 4th in NFL in YDS (716)
  •  5th in NFL in RUSH YPG (89.5)
  • 3rd in NFL in TD (5)
  • 3rd in Fantasy with 100 points for RBs

1.RG III- How can you argue? He still leads all of fantasy in scoring, and has put up pretty phenomenal numbers on his way to doing so, thus far the rookie sensation is:

  • 5th in NFL in CMP% (66.8)  
  • 7th in NFL in RAT (97.3)
  • 2nd in NFL in rush TD (6) also 17th in rushing yards, ahead of Richardson and Forte (476)
  • 1st in all of fantasy, 1 point ahead of Rodgers, despite RG III missing time against the Falcons

Let Downs

Johnson won’t have much to celebrate soon if he doesn’t turn things around (

5. BenJarvus Green Ellis– Once the Law-firm was traded to the Bengals; he was expected to be The Man.  However, he hasn’t quite lived up to his expectations,

  • Ranks 21st in NFL rush (436)
  • Tied for 25th in TD (2) which is as many as Tom Brady has
  • Has yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season
  • Scored double-digit fantasy points twice
  • Currently 24th overall RB in fantasy

4. LeSean McCoy– After scoring 20 total TDs and accumulating over 1,600 total yards a season ago, and being ranked the #3 overall fantasy player heading into this year’s draft, McCoy currently ranks:

  • 15th in NFL rushing (506)
  • Tied for 25th rush TD (2)
  • Ranks 12th in fantasy RB
  • 47th overall fantasy player

3. Phillip Rivers- granted he lost Vincent Jackson, but he still has Gates, Floyd, added Meachem, and has Mathews, yet Rivers has not had a good fantasy or NFL season at all, he currently ranks:

  • 24th in fantasy QBs, behind guys like Kolb, Wilson, Bradford, and Ponder
  • 24th in NFL passing (1,646)
  • Tied for 12th in TD (10)
  • 5th in INT (9)
  • Has 2 games with under double-digit points, and only 1 game with over 20 points

2. Calvin Johnson– Megatron, the #6th overall ranked player heading in the draft, average draft position was 7.5 overall, and coming off of an historic year a season ago, with over 1,600 rec yards and 16 TD, Johnson currently ranks:

  • 12th in NFL rec (41)
  • 7th in rec yards (638)
  • Tied for 82nd in TD (1)
  • Ranks 18th in WR for fantasy
  • 3 double digit games thus far, but has 4 games with 9 points or under

1. Andre Johnson– Regarded as a top-10 player pre-draft, Johnson has not even come close to living up to what is expected from him, Johnson currently ranks:

  • 32 in NFL rec yards (444)
  • Tied for 51st  in rec TD (2)
  • 32nd in rec (34)
  • 37th WR in fantasy, behind guys like Santana Moss, and Josh Gordon
  • 5 games with 8 points or fewer

One response to “Andre Johnson, RG III and other Top Surprise and Let-downs in Fantasy Football

  1. You would put Ridley at 2nd. Like comparing Green to Cruz, Rice has had a bye week and Ridley has not. Also how many times was Ridley sitting on the bench because his inconsistency is too much to deal with.

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