What happened to Reggie Bush?

Bush was benched a week ago and was less than stellar last night, now owners everywhere wonder “What happened?” (bleacherreport.com)

He was on pace for over 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns, now he isn’t even expected to hit the 1,000 yard mark, and only 6 TDs.  He was the second overall running back after three weeks, now he’s #19.  He was the clear-cut starter in Miami, and now Daniel Thomas has threatened his spot. He was even benched a week ago after a costly fumble.  So what the heck has happened to Reggie Bush?

After 41 points in the first two weeks, a knee injury knocked Bush out out of his week 3 match-up versus the Jets and he hasn’t been the same since.  In fact, since week 2 (31 point performance, bringing his two week total to 312 total yards) Bush has a combined 47 points, including only two touchdowns and two weeks of double-digit fantasy points( and only 457 total yards in 8 weeks).  Only twice in that span has he run for more than 60 yards, and even last night versus the Bills (who give up the most points in fantasy to RB) Bush managed only 2 ypc, gaining 20 yards on 10 rushes (the Bills give up on average 5.2 ypc and 153 ypg on the ground).

Bush’s lackluster performance has owners everywhere furious, and wondering if he is even worth starting anymore.  So I will take a look at his remaining schedule and determine if in fact he should be in your starting line-up.

Bush’s schedule:

In his remaining 6 games, he faces:

-New England x2 (7th rush defense in NFL, rank 9th in fantasy to point allowed to RB)

-San Francisco (6th rush defense in NFL, give up least points to RB in fantasy)

-Seattle (13th rush defense in NFL)

-Jacksonville (28th in NFL and 30th in fantasy) and Buffalo (last in NFL and fantasy) again.

Based solely on schedule, I would say other than those two give-me games against Buffalo and Jacksonville that if you have another option than Bush, start him.  Also because:

-New England (26th in NFL pass defense,  27th in fantasy to points allowed to opposing QBs)

-Buffalo (25th in pass defense, 31st in fantasy)

-Jacksonville (21st in pass defense, 18th in fantasy)

This means that in 4 out of those 6 games, the Dolphins are likely to throw the ball, and throw it often.  Granted Bush can catch out of the backfield, but not enough that I would feel comfortable in him.

Unless Bush snaps out of this funk, or if we soon realize that this is really him, I say that he is NOT a must start anymore in most fantasy leagues.

I hope this helps, good luck.

 

 

Vick, Roethlisberger, Smith, and Cutler likely out; who can fill in?

With Vick, Roethlisberger, Smith and Cutler questionable for this weekend, are there QBs out there that you can grab off the waiver wire to help you win week 11?  Yes they’re:

Ryan Fitzpatrick- facing Miami is week 11 who:

  • rank 21st in points  allowed to fantasy QBs (16.3 ppg)
  • Allowed Luck to throw for a rookie-record  433 yards and two TDs in week 9
  • ranked 28th in NFL in pass defense 278 ypg,
  • MIA defense has only 8 INT (tied 15th in NFL)
  • Fitzpatrick is currently 16th QB in fantasy tied with Romo (ahead of Schaub and Eli)
  • Fitzpatrick: tied for 8th in NFL with 17 pass TDs
  • Fitzpatrick is available in 55%of leagues

Sam Bradford-

  • Has his favorite target back in Danny Amendola
  • Threw for 275 and 2TDs against the 49ers in week 10
  • Facing the Jets in week 11 who are tied for 18th with only 7 INT this season
  •  The Jets are also tied for 22nd with only 16 sacks
  • Bradford is only owned 40% of leagues

Carson Palmer– facing New Orleans in week 11 who :

  • Ranks last in fantasy points to opposing QBs (21.4 ppg)
  • 31st in NFL allowing 307 passing yards/game
  • 29th in NFL allowing 19 pass TDs
  • Last in NFL allowing 8.6 yards/attempt
  • last in NFL allowing a long-pass of 95 yards this season (closest is Tampa with 82)
  • Last in NFL allowing opposing QB rating of 104.4
  • tied for 26th in NFL with only 5 INT
  • Palmer is 3rd in NFL with 2,723 passing yards,  and tied for 10th in 15 TDs
  • Palmer is 9th ranked QB in fantasy and 11th fantasy player overall
  • Palmer is owned in 66.8% of leagues

Adrian Peterson or Peyton Manning, Who’s been more impressive?

(aol.sportsnews.com)

After Peyton Manning underwent neck fusion surgery, and Adrian Peterson went under the knife to repair a torn ACL and MCL, both of their statuses were in question for the 2012-2013 NFL and fantasy football season.

The skepticism for both players was not without reasoning, as this was Manning’s fourth neck surgery and many feared that one more good, clean, and hard hit would spell the end of his career, and history wasn’t on the side of Peterson, since only Jamal Lewis and Terry Allen were the only RBs in NFL history to return from an ACL injury and rush for over 1,000 yards the following year.

However, after 10 weeks of football, Manning currently ranks:

  • 5th in NFL in passing yards (2,705)
  • 3rd in NFL in passing TDs (21)
  • 1st in NFL QB Rat (108.0)
  • 5th in passing yards/game (301)
  • 2nd in competition % (69.7%)
  • 6th overall fantasy QB and 6th overall fantasy scorer (175 points) averaging 19.4/game
  • In 6 out of 9 games he’s had over 20 or more fantasy points

While Peterson ranks:

  • 1st in NFL rushing yards (1,128)
  • 3rd in yards/attempt (5.7) however the two ahead of him (Spiller and RG III) have a combined 168 attempts, while Peterson has 195 himself
  • 2nd in NFL rushing TDs (7)
  • 1st in NFL with rushes over 20+ yards (13) almost double second place (McCoy 7)
  • 1st in yards/game (112.8)
  • 7th overall fantasy scorer, and 1st RB (164 points) 16.4 ppg
  • 4 games with 20 or more fantasy points
  • Averaging 157.3 rushing yards/game last 4 weeks

While both have been more than remarkable, who is the most impressive?

I’m giving the slight edge to Peterson, although I do believe that Manning is having an MVP-type season.

Yet, Peterson is a mere 199 yards away from surpassing Jamal Lewis’s 2001 season’s rushing yards when he returned from ACL injury.  Not only Lewis’s season, but Peterson is only 632 yards away from surpassing his own season-high of 1,760 yards.  In addition, despite the both of them having phenomenal season’s, when you look at stats, AP is the #1 RB in fantasy, that means there is no one better than him right now, while Manning is ranked 6th.

But, taking a step back from statistics it’s the way Peterson continues to play despite his knee.  Every time he runs the ball he continues to look for contact, refuses to run out of bounds, cuts and jukes like he’s a rookie again, and looks better than anyone could’ve imagined.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Fill-Ins

With  the Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Washington Redskins all on byes, and guys like Run DMC, Percy Harvin, and Antonio Brown all banged up, owners everywhere are going to need a quick-fix for week 10.  Well do not fret, because I have a list of players who should help your team towards victory this weekend, and I will break them down by position.

Quarterback: Notable one’s out this week- Aaron Rodgers and RG II

wikipedia.com

Ryan Tanehill (owned in 10% of leagues, started in 3.5%)

  • facing the Titans in week 10, who allows the 30th most points in fantasy to opposing QBs (19.3 ppg)
  • Titans rank 27th, allowing 274 passing yards/game
  • Titans: rank last in NFL allowing opposing QBs an average rating of 108.4
  • also rank 22nd in NFL with only 14 sacks

Running Backs: Notable one’s out this week- Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden (questionable) and Alfred Morris

Marcel Reece and Taiwan Jones (owned in 0.2 and 2.6 percent of leagues)

  • If Run DMC and Goodson are no-gos (which seems likely) the duo will get the start against the Ravens
  • Ravens: give up the 26th most points to opposing fantasy RBs (19.6 ppg)
  • rank 28th in the NFL, allwoing 139.5 rushing yards/game
  • have allowed 9 rushing TDs to opposing RB this season (tied for 24th in NFL)

Jaquizz Rodgers(owned in 11.5% of leagues)

bleacherreport.com

  • Although he may not be the starter, Atlanta has made it clear that they want to involve Rodgers in the offense
  • Week 10, facing the Saints who: have conceded 9 rushing TDs (24th in NFL)
  • rank last in NFL, allowing 176.5 yards/game on the ground
  • rank 31st in fantasy, giving up 24 points a game to opposing RBs
  • rank 29th in passs defense (311.4 yards/game) since Rodgers is a dual threat

Wide Receivers: Notable one’s out- Larry Fitzgerald, Jordy Nelson and Percy Harvin (questionable)

Emanuel Sanders (owned in 2% of leagues)

  • if Brown is a no-go, Sanders will see an increase in action
  • Facing KC in week 10 who: ranks 20th against receivers, allowing 21 ppg to WRs
  • ranks 29th in NFL, allowing 17 TDs to WRs

    patriotsdaily.com

Devon Bess (owned in 10% of leagues)

  • for same reasons as Tanehill listed above

Tight Ends notable ones out- Jermichael Finley and Cody Fleener

Brandon Meyers: (owned in 10.4 % of leagues)

  • Meyers currently is the 8th ranked TE in fantasy
  • facing Baltimore in week 10 who: ranks 16th in fantasy against opposing TE
  • has allowed 90+ yards to opposing TE 3 times this season

Kickers: notable ones out- Phil Dawson and Mason Crosby

Justin Tucker

  • facing Oakland in week 10 who ranks 30th in fantasy to opposing kickers allowing 11.4 ppg
  • has allowed double digit points to kickers in 5 out of the 8 weeks

Doug Martin Explodes, but can he maintain?

Martin walked off the field Sunday with every right to be this excited.
Usatoday.com

For those of us who were able to watch or those of us stuck watching the stat line Sunday when the Bucs took on the Raiders, we all somehow saw Bucs rookie running back, Doug Martin, absolutely go off.

Martin finished  Sunday’s game with 251 yards on the ground and four touchdowns (70, 45, 67, and 1 yard runs).

Martin set many records during his brilliant performance, such as compiling the most rushing yards ever in a game in Bucs history, becoming the first player ever in NFL history to score three touchdowns on runs of 45-plus yards, and putting together the fourth best fantasy football performance since 1970.

Martin’s 51 points (standard scoring leagues) on Sunday is tied with Corey Dillon’s 1997 performance, and only behind Clinton Portis (54 points), Shaun Alexander (52 points), and Jerry Rice (52 points).

In fact, Martin is now the #1 RB in fantasy (1point ahead of Foster).  But, can he maintain this level of play?  I am of course no referring to Sunday’s performance, and I do not expect him to continuously put up over 50 points, but can he keep himself in the mix of the top RB?

I say why not?  Some may argue that with Carl Nicks out, Martin will not have the same blocking, but I say that it didn’t seem to bother him Sunday.  It’s also worth noting that not only Martin, but also Freeman and the Bucs offense as a whole is on fire!

The Bucs currently have the 9th total overall offense, averaging 376.6 yards of offense a game, with 131 (9th in NFL) of those coming on the ground and the reaming 245 (12th in NFL) through the air.  They are also 5th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 28.3 ppg that puts them ahead of New Orleans, New York and Atlanta.

With that offense so hot, teams cannot just key in on Martin, or Freeman will burn them deep.  Martin’s schedule also speaks well to his chances, as 5 of his 8 remaining games are against teams that rank in the bottom half of the NFL in rush defense.

Do not be shocked to see Martin as a top 5-7 RB come season’s end.

Andre Johnson, RG III and other Top Surprise and Let-downs in Fantasy Football

When calculating top surprises and top let-downs it is important to understand exactly what the formula is. However, unlike all those dreadful math classes you took throughout school, this formula is easy to understand.   In fact, it’s quite simple, the equation is as following: expectation vs. actual output.

To make it even simpler, when determining a surprise or a let-down I look at what was expected from them entering the season, and what have they actually done.  There are some players who have underperformed significantly, however it may have been due to injury (Greg Jennings) so players like that are not on this list.

With that being said, let’s get into it:

boston.cbslocal

Surprises

5. A.J. Green– We all know Green’s expectations, especially after a strong rookie campaign where he caught 65 passes for over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs (with a rookie QB).  However did we know he would be this good, this quickly? He currently:

  • 9th in NFL in receptions (44)
  • 8th in yards (636)
  • 1st in TDs (7)
  • 6th in rec yards/game (90.9)
  • Currently tied for 1st as top WR in fantasy (with Victor Cruz), with the Green coming off of a bye week, and Cruz yet to have his

Tied for 4th:

Alfred Morris- Like I have said before with him, he’s a rookie and a Shanahan RB, two things I rarely ever trust.  Yet he has defied my doubts and made me a believer, he currently:

  • 3rd in NFL in YDS (717)
  •  4th in NFL in RUSH YPG (89.6)
  •  3rd in NFL in TD (5)
  • 5th overall RB in fantasy
  • He’s also coming off back-t0-back 120+ yard rushing games

Adrian Peterson- We all know how good All Day AP is, but are we forgetting the fact that he is only mere months removed from major knee surgery to repair not only his ACL, but also his MCL? Despite all those obstacles, AP has managed, though eight games, to:

  • 1st in NFL in YDS (775) 
  • 1st in NFL in RUSH YPG (96.9) 
  • 9th in NFL in TD (4)
  • 2nd RB in fast, only behind Foster

3. Heath Miller– Like I said before, he’s a good TE there is no denying that, but when is the last time he’s been relevant in fantasy?  Well regardless of his past-seasons offensive slumps, this season, through eight weeks Miller is:

  • 5th in the NFL in TD (6)
  • 9th among TE in receiving (336)
  • 5th among TE in receptions
  • 2nd in TE in fantasy with 69 points, ahead of Gonzales, Graham, Davis and Witten

2. Stevan Ridley- Who has more fantasy points 8 weeks into the season, Ray Rice or Stephen Ridley?  Trick question, through 8 weeks the highly sought after Rice and little-known Ridley have the same amount of fantasy points (100).  Not only is this a huge surprised because it’s Ridley second year, but he’s also a New England RB, and NE isn’t known for their run game, however, thus far Ridley is:

  • 4th in NFL in YDS (716)
  •  5th in NFL in RUSH YPG (89.5)
  • 3rd in NFL in TD (5)
  • 3rd in Fantasy with 100 points for RBs

1.RG III- How can you argue? He still leads all of fantasy in scoring, and has put up pretty phenomenal numbers on his way to doing so, thus far the rookie sensation is:

  • 5th in NFL in CMP% (66.8)  
  • 7th in NFL in RAT (97.3)
  • 2nd in NFL in rush TD (6) also 17th in rushing yards, ahead of Richardson and Forte (476)
  • 1st in all of fantasy, 1 point ahead of Rodgers, despite RG III missing time against the Falcons

Let Downs

Johnson won’t have much to celebrate soon if he doesn’t turn things around (boston.com)

5. BenJarvus Green Ellis– Once the Law-firm was traded to the Bengals; he was expected to be The Man.  However, he hasn’t quite lived up to his expectations,

  • Ranks 21st in NFL rush (436)
  • Tied for 25th in TD (2) which is as many as Tom Brady has
  • Has yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season
  • Scored double-digit fantasy points twice
  • Currently 24th overall RB in fantasy

4. LeSean McCoy– After scoring 20 total TDs and accumulating over 1,600 total yards a season ago, and being ranked the #3 overall fantasy player heading into this year’s draft, McCoy currently ranks:

  • 15th in NFL rushing (506)
  • Tied for 25th rush TD (2)
  • Ranks 12th in fantasy RB
  • 47th overall fantasy player

3. Phillip Rivers- granted he lost Vincent Jackson, but he still has Gates, Floyd, added Meachem, and has Mathews, yet Rivers has not had a good fantasy or NFL season at all, he currently ranks:

  • 24th in fantasy QBs, behind guys like Kolb, Wilson, Bradford, and Ponder
  • 24th in NFL passing (1,646)
  • Tied for 12th in TD (10)
  • 5th in INT (9)
  • Has 2 games with under double-digit points, and only 1 game with over 20 points

2. Calvin Johnson– Megatron, the #6th overall ranked player heading in the draft, average draft position was 7.5 overall, and coming off of an historic year a season ago, with over 1,600 rec yards and 16 TD, Johnson currently ranks:

  • 12th in NFL rec (41)
  • 7th in rec yards (638)
  • Tied for 82nd in TD (1)
  • Ranks 18th in WR for fantasy
  • 3 double digit games thus far, but has 4 games with 9 points or under

1. Andre Johnson– Regarded as a top-10 player pre-draft, Johnson has not even come close to living up to what is expected from him, Johnson currently ranks:

  • 32 in NFL rec yards (444)
  • Tied for 51st  in rec TD (2)
  • 32nd in rec (34)
  • 37th WR in fantasy, behind guys like Santana Moss, and Josh Gordon
  • 5 games with 8 points or fewer

Josh Freeman: Fluke or For Real?

mkrob.com

After naming him one of my biggest sleepers of the entire 2012-13 NFL fantasy season, Tampa’s quarterback Josh Freeman has been on a tear as of late.  Since Freeman is generally a back-up in most leagues (owned in 72%, only started in 15% of leagues) many owners are now wondering if they should give him a shot in the starting line-up.  However, before they come to a conclusion on such a question they need to think of one thing, is Josh Freeman for real? Or is this just a fluke?

I am of course referring to Freeman’s play over the last three weeks against the Vikings, Chiefs and Saints

It all started against the Chiefs in week 5, where Freeman threw for 328 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception on 15 of 26 passing.  While the Chiefs team as a whole has been nothing to write home about this year, their pass-defense holds some validity thus far, as they rank 13th in the NFL only allowing 224.5 passing yards/game.

The subsequent week, Freeman exploded against the Saints, out-slinging Drew Brees, as he threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns.  Freeman also managed 13 yards on the ground, and was only sacked twice.

Then this past Thursday, Freeman had his third-consecutive 3-touchdown performance against a solid Vikings defense.    The Vikings rank 12th in the NFL against the pass, 11th in points allowed with 20.8 ppg, and ranked 12th against opposing fantasy offenses.  Yet none of that mattered to Freeman as he threw for 262 yards and three more touchdowns on his team’s way to victory over the Vikings, 38-17.

Nonetheless, can this continue?

Yet, I have a better question, why not?

I believe Freeman is more than capable of continuing to put-up similar numbers throughout the rest of the season.  Maybe he won’t be tossing-up three touchdowns and 300+ yards every game, but there is no reason he can’t be in that ball-park.

Over the next three weeks, Freeman and the Bucs will face the Raiders (22nd in NFL in pass defense 254.7 yards/game , 27th in points allowed/game with 28.5, and aren’t exactly takeaway threats with only 7 takeaways thus far and rank the 30th defense in fantasy) the Chiefs (rank 26th in fantasy, only 6 takeaways as a team so far, and rank 30th in NFL with 30.5 ppg allowed) and the Chargers (rank 25th in NFL allowing 265.8 passing yards/game,  and 16th with 22.8 ppg allowed)